Predicting Outcomes of Hormone and Chemotherapy in the Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) Study by Biochemically-inspired Machine Learning

Genomic aberrations and gene expression-defined subtypes in the large METABRIC patient cohort have been used to stratify and predict survival. The present study used normalized gene expression signatures of paclitaxel drug response to predict outcome for different survival times in METABRIC patients receiving hormone (HT) and, in some cases, chemotherapy (CT) agents. This machine learning method, which distinguishes sensitivity vs. resistance in breast cancer cell lines and validates predictions in patients; was also used to derive gene signatures of other HT  (tamoxifen) and CT agents (methotrexate, epirubicin, doxorubicin, and 5-fluorouracil) used in METABRIC. Paclitaxel gene signatures exhibited the best performance, however the other agents also predicted survival with acceptable accuracies. A support vector machine (SVM) model of paclitaxel response containing genes  ABCB1, ABCB11, ABCC1, ABCC10, BAD, BBC3, BCL2, BCL2L1, BMF, CYP2C8, CYP3A4, MAP2, MAP4, MAPT, NR1I2, SLCO1B3, TUBB1, TUBB4A, and TUBB4B was 78.6% accurate in predicting survival of 84 patients treated with both HT and CT (median survival ≥ 4.4 yr). Accuracy was lower (73.4%) in 304 untreated patients. The performance of other machine learning approaches was also evaluated at different survival thresholds. Minimum redundancy maximum relevance feature selection of a paclitaxel-based SVM classifier based on expression of genes  BCL2L1, BBC3, FGF2, FN1, and  TWIST1 was 81.1% accurate in 53 CT patients. In addition, a random forest (RF) classifier using a gene signature ( ABCB1, ABCB11, ABCC1, ABCC10, BAD, BBC3, BCL2, BCL2L1, BMF, CYP2C8, CYP3A4, MAP2, MAP4, MAPT, NR1I2,SLCO1B3, TUBB1, TUBB4A, and TUBB4B) predicted >3-year survival with 85.5% accuracy in 420 HT patients. A similar RF gene signature showed 82.7% accuracy in 504 patients treated with CT and/or HT. These results suggest that tumor gene expression signatures refined by machine learning techniques can be useful for predicting survival after drug therapies.